Skills · SkillResearch & AnalysisReviewed

prediction-market-oracle-research

Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice.

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Kind: Skill
Works with: Claude Code, Codex
Source: affaan-m/ECC @ d3b8a3e90890
Path: skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md
License: MIT
Jobs: Review

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# Prediction Market Oracle Research

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,
forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.

## Guardrails

- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the
  implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run `llm-trading-agent-security`
  before granting any write authority.

## Research Workflow

1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
4. Evaluate signal quality:
   - liquidity
   - spread
   - market age
   - trader/incentive concentration if known
   - resolution authority
   - geography or account restrictions
5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,
   customer data, or internal KPIs.
6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated
   decision.
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